Celsius Holdings (ticker: CELH) Partial Sale & Adyen (ticker: ADYEN) Frustration
The initial purchase price was $22 per share. After Celsius decided to acquire their direct competitor, Alani Nu—eliminating what I saw as their biggest threat—I added to the position at a higher price, resulting in an average purchase price of approximately $25 per share. I was very bullish following management’s decision to acquire Alani Nu and would have liked to buy more shares, but the stock price increased rapidly, making additional purchases less attractive from an internal rate of return (IRR) perspective. As a result, I stopped adding to the position.
Approximately six months later, following very strong 2Q '25 earnings, Celsius continued to rise. The share price reached around $61, and the prospective returns at this level appeared less attractive based on my forecasted financials. Consequently, I sold 30% of the position and plan to retain the remainder in the portfolio. Currently, the position accounts for roughly 7% of the portfolio. I estimate the expected return at the current share price to be about 7%, according to my calculations.
I expect revenues to rise by approximately 30% year-over-year based on 2024 pro-forma numbers. In 2026, I forecast around 25% revenue growth, followed by about 15% in 2027, then slowing to around 10% in 2029—slightly above the market growth in the energy drink sector. Assuming a 20% profit margin and an exit multiple of 25x, the expected IRR at the current valuation is roughly 7%. The investment thesis can be found here:
And and an analysis of the 2Q ‘25 numbers here:
I continue to hold about 7% because I believe the business still has a significant runway and could even deliver a higher IRR than I am currently forecasting. Ultimately, the value depends largely on how long this runway extends, which is very difficult to predict. I believe this uncertainty is one of the most challenging aspects of investing: deciding how much to let winners run.
Adyen Frustration
Share prices have been extremely volatile around earnings this summer. Sometimes justifiably so; other times, it creates opportunities for investors. Adyen was one such opportunity when the share price dropped below €1,200. I had the funds ready to deploy but got distracted in the morning. When I was finally prepared to buy, the share price had recovered more than half of the initial drop. This was another lesson learned. We reflected Adyen’s latest earnings here
The cash position is gradually building up again. There are still a few companies in our portfolio—such as Dino Polska, PDD Holdings, DPC Dash, and Auto Partner—that need to report their 1H25 or 2Q25 earnings. Perhaps 'Mr. Market' will present opportunities to deploy capital into these names or other names on our watchlist.
Disclaimer
The information in this article is provided for informational and educational purposes only. The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice, is general in nature, and is not specific to you. Before using this article’s information to make an investment decision, you should seek the advice of a qualified and registered securities professional and undertake your own due diligence. None of the information in this article is intended as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund. The author is not responsible for any investment decision made by you. You are responsible for your own investment research and investment decisions. The author may or may not have shares of the company.