Wise update (3Q'26)
Revenue is accelerating
Wise update
Wise plc (ticker: WISE) published a trading update on Tuesday morning. As you might know by now, I consider Wise a high-quality business, and it makes up a decent part of our portfolio. In the last set of results (H1’26), all important metrics were what you would expect from a high-growth company, but the revenues (and profitability) were not reflecting this. This changed in 3Q’26.
We have previously written about Wise, some posts can be found here
Although Wise only discloses revenues in its quarterly trading updates, this quarter the important KPIs showed strong growth again, and this was reflected in the revenues, which grew by 21%. Below is a summary of the key metrics of this quarter:
Cross-border volume grew 25% to £47.4bn (Personal +21%, Business +37%); take rate remained at 0.52% (3Q’25: 0.56%).
Customer balances grew by 30% to £21.2bn, while customer holdings (customer balances + assets under custody) grew by 34% to £27.5bn.
Card and other revenues grew by 30% to £127.4m, while cross-border revenues hit £245.4m (+15.3%).
If we unpack these numbers, a couple of things stand out to me. Cross-border growth accelerated slightly versus last quarter (+24% in 2Q’26). This was a positive surprise, as I expected the same growth for Q3 compared to Q2. Customer balances continued to grow strongly (+30%), which resulted, among other things, in card and other revenues growing by 30% as well, outpacing growth from cross-border revenues (+15.3%). Card and other revenues now make up ~30% of total revenues (see graph below).
Source: company reports
While personal customer growth remains strong (20% YoY), the Wise Business segment is outperforming in volume growth. Business volumes grew 37% YoY in 3Q’26, compared to 21% growth in the personal segment. This continues a trend seen in 1H’26, where business volumes grew 35%, driven by product enhancements like invoice generators and Quick Pay.
This is deliberate. Wise fuels their cross-border engine to make money in other parts of the business. The widening moat (i.e., lower take rate, faster payments) makes it harder for competition to keep up. The other products become a serious revenue driver. It is becoming more and more evident that Wise looks closer to a bank (without having a UK banking license). At some point, they might apply for one.
For trading updates, Wise doesn’t host calls, but to be honest, the important KPIs (cross-border volumes, customer holdings) were already growing fast. It wasn’t a matter to me if revenue growth would pick up, but when. If it hadn’t happened this quarter, it would have happened in the following quarters, assuming cross-border volume continued to grow at the same pace.
Due to the fact that Wise kept their take rate unchanged QoQ, revenues rose meaningfully (+21%). Because they are able to keep their cross-border volume growth in the mid-20s, I expect them to reach revenue growth for FY26 in the high teens, slightly above the mid-range of their own shared guidance of 15-20%.
Dual listing (UK and US)
Wise confirmed it expects to complete its dual listing in the first half of this year. An additional listing will not fundamentally change the profile of the business, but the listing will help them attract new customers and attract high-quality employees. Wise will need both to grow successfully.
Valuation
Even after yesterday’s price action, I see an IRR of roughly ~18%. Even though Wise published better-than-expected results in Q3, I am keeping the valuation unchanged.
The model can be found here: Wise model
Disclaimer
The information in this article is provided for informational and educational purposes only. The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice, is general in nature, and is not specific to you. Before using this article’s information to make an investment decision, you should seek the advice of a qualified and registered securities professional and undertake your own due diligence. None of the information in this article is intended as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund. The author is not responsible for any investment decision made by you. You are responsible for your own investment research and investment decisions. The author may or may not have shares of the company.
Impressive breakdown of how Wise is playing the long game. The 30% jump in card revenues really shows they're building a real ecosystem beyond just cross-border. Sacrificing margins upfront (lower take rate) to acclerate the flywheel is kinda counter-intuitive at first, but seems to be working when the data rolls in.
Just checked on your valuation model. The IRR seems to be 5.25 years (I assume it should be 5 years now) and should go to YE 2030? But it seems to go to YE 2031 market cap forecast.
The 2031 market cap forcast is also used 25x multiple on Reported PBT line instead of the previously used 28x multiple on Normalised Net profits, not sure if that was meant or not?